US Presidential Elections 2020

The US is the most stable democracy in the world. From the drafting of its constitution in 1787, it has faced many challenges. The true unification of the US happened after the Civil War (1861-1865) where a group of 11 southern states which practiced slavery parted ways from the nation. The Trans-Atlantic railroad project built through the inhumane weather and extra-ordinary terrains of The Sierra Nevada, connected the developed East to the isolated West marking the era of growth for democracy. Many such examples follow. Freedom is the base on which this country is born and the red white and blue remain unified because of this very principle and at the heart of this, is democracy and the quadrennial event of Presidential elections.

The 2020 Presidential election is going to be highly contentious. The only election as controversial as this would be the 2000 Presidential Elections. George W. Bush (Republican) was against Al Gore (Democrat). The night of Nov 7th 2000 saw millions glued to TVs in anticipation of who would win. Many networks announced that the key state of Florida had been won by Al Gore but late at night it was announced that Bush had won it. Later, it was declared that George W. Bush had won the election but voters started opening up about discrepancies in the voting system. It was then decided to re-count 4 counties, which Al Gore thought he had comfortably won. There were accusations from both sides vis-a-vis voting system. The Republicans alleged that voter fraud had taken place but no evidence was ever found. Finally, the Supreme court ruled that George W. Bush had officially won the elections and the matter finally closed. There is a lot of decluttering to be done here, to look for events which are very likely to happen again this year. The first thing, Republicans are using voter fraud strategy. Voter fraud is when votes are manipulated. Second, you need to have your friends in the Supreme Court. If the Democrats had judges aligned with their ideology the result would have been very different. The Blue party has long been struggling with this issue of not have friends in the Supreme court. The voter fraud strategy has been extensively used by Trump this year; his campaign has already filed lawsuits against blue states alleging these states support voter fraud through laws. It is very likely that if the time comes, Trump will play the “voter fraud card”. The Democrats may seem to be at a disadvantage but the Democrat voters have come up to vote in unprecedented numbers this time around. Long queues for early voting are a clear indication of that.

Here are the dynamics of who votes for whom and what has changed this year. Demographically, Whites vote for Republican (Trump) and the minority votes for Democrats. Republicans(right-wing) are of the view that immigrants do have the opportunity, they just have to work harder to get it. Minorites includes Black, Hispanic and Asian communities. White males with a college degree are more likely to vote for Democrats. The biggest change this year is the suburban housewife. These suburban white women have been voting for Republicans for lifetime. This group includes women who are not very much into politics, who just read the headlines and vote for the party which their family has been voting for since decades. All this is now changing. In 2016, nobody expected Trump to be elected as the President but it happened, these women did not like what and How Trump administration ran the country. These suburban women gave Trump the push which he needed to become the President in 2016, this same group may now vote him out of power. It is not easy to understand Trump’s rationale. How would a mom answer her 9-year-old child when he asks” why doesn’t our President wear a mask when I have to wear it at school?” The answer to this question has caused the flip.

As mentioned earlier, Communities of colour lean Democrat. This has always been the case. These communities have been facing social inequality for the decades. There are various reasons for why the minority group votes Democrats. One can explain it via this anecdote; in mid-90’s a Latino family was on its way back home to Phoenix, Arizona when they had a double flat tire. With no cell phones, this family with three children in the backseat had nobody to call for help. When they were waiting, a cop pulled up to them and asked the father to put his hands on the car’s bonnet and frisked him. The cop asked the father if there are any weapons or illegal substances in the vehicle, the cop went ahead and searched the vehicle against their permission and when he found nothing, he just left. Now, there is this family in dire need of help and the cop humiliated them and without even asking for help, just left. The father and the family were left feeling like terrorists in their own country. These very strong instances prove that racial profiling existed and it still exists in the US and it is only the Democratic Party which recognizes it and fights against it. This is the primary reason why the minority leans Democrat. On the other hand, there are older retired Latinos who are voting for Trump in 2020. The reason is that Trump has taken care of their retirement bills very well, they say. This underlies a major fact which may prove to be one of the reasons why Biden may lose the elections. The ability to resonate how he would help secure the economic future of Latinos. Trump is pro-business and pro-economic development, at least this is what his perception is.

Arizona has traditionally been a Republican stronghold. It was only in 2018, that a Democrat Senator was elected in Arizona for the first time in three decades. Trump won Arizona by 9 points in 2016. For the 2020 campaign, he has visited the state 5 times whereas Biden visited only once. Surprisingly, the polls show that Biden is leading in the state. Biden may very well win it this time.

A factor unique to this election is Covid-19. Voting system had to be modified because of it. The government did not want everyone to come out on Nov 7 so it started early voting. One can vote even before Nov 7. Early votes are of two types, in-person and mail in. You can visit the voting station in person and vote before Nov 7, this is in-person. While in mail in, voter can mail his or her vote. There is something peculiar about early votes, they are disproportionately Democrat whereas people who vote on the election day are disproportionately Republican votes. As of this writing, 92 million votes have already been cast. To add to this, the US state has no federal Election commission which many countries do, like the Election Commission in India. So, in the US, it is each state’s responsibility to declare the results and it is left to the candidate to claim victory.

Now that most of the aspects regarding the elections have been stated, who would win. I answer this question with two perspectives. First, with a view of India. Would things be any different for India if Biden wins or Trump stays, the answer to it is no. When it comes to international relations & diplomacy, it’s not the leader’s personal relationships with other leaders that dictates their relationship with the country, the country comes first. India-US ties have reached a new high thanks to the common foe China and many other factors. Trump is pro-Modi. The left-leaning Democrat may have ideological differences with the right-winged Indian Government but these can be ignored on this scale. Had Bernie Sanders become the President we might have some issues as he had taken a clear stance against the Indian government’s move to scrap Article 370 giving special privileges to Kashmir, but that’s a different topic of discussion altogether. So, India has a friend at 1600, Pennsylvania Avenue no matter if he a Republican or a Democrat.

The second aspect is, personal, I am of the view that the America we knew about 10-15 years ago is not the same anymore. The idea of a better standard of living in America is fading away, it is not as lucrative as it used to be. Trump has in a way contributed to this downfall. What I expect from the next president, is to try to improve this image of America that has been degraded. America has to be made great again in a true sense and I feel it is Biden who can attempt this mammoth task.

America decided to turn the page on era of Trump. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris were elected as the President and Vice-President respectively. Better immigration policies, Healthcare and social justice are the aspects where the duo is expected to do very well. Vice-President Elect Kamala not only represents community of color but also the fact that how open Americans are. In India we can’t even expect an immigrant’s child to reach such a high position.

I expect the duo to rectify the mess Trump has left behind. Improving America's image in the eyes of the world would be their prime task. Going back to 2015 Paris Agreement, making sure NATO is stronger than ever, better trade deals with China and India is what the duo should be doing. One thing is for sure, Kamala may be of Indian descent but she’s American first. All the decisions that she and Biden takes would be with America first mindset.